Sunny Battazzi

Fuel prices jumped back up this week after a brief downfall in prices last week. Retail gas prices jumped $0.19/gal while diesel moved up $0.12/gal. This comes on the heels of President Trump announcing an indefinite extension of the ceasefire between the US & Iran. With no hard-set dates or timelines, many are wondering what will come of the latest ceasefire and how it will hold up. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed and under a multi-national blockade between Iran and the US with ships being boarded & shot at on both sides as prices continue to climb. This ongoing conflict has continued to create supply network bottlenecks across the globe, affecting CNG, Crude Oil, fertilizers, chip manufacturing, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude is currently trading at $119/barrel, up $22/barrel since last week. The UAE has announced it will be leaving OPEC and OPEC+ as of May 1st. This will further the divide within global oil supply networks. The UAE is the third-largest producer of crude oil among OPEC members behind Iran & Saudi Arabia. OPEC supplies nearly 40% of global oil output, with over 4.6M barrels per day following the departure of the UAE. This will allow the UAE to produce and sell more of its crude oil to a larger market.

Fuel prices dropped this week for the first time in 10 weeks. Retail fuel prices are still high, as fuel prices are still over 45% higher than they were as of March 1st. Brent crude is still hovering around $100/barrel due to the prolonged strain throughout the Strait of Hormuz. The Blockade between Iran & the US has created a new dynamic within the crude market in which crude oil does not trade like a traditional market but as a geopolitical power structure. The current market is seemingly being driven by logistical supply chain challenges, not demand or consumption. While the US & Iran continue to negotiate a treaty, markets are still experiencing extreme volatility. This issue is not only affecting crude oil supply but also feedstocks, fertilizers, and thousands of key supplies to infrastructure globally.  

The US & Iran are said to be continuing negotiations of a peace treaty, as prior deadlines approach this week. The current market conditions are expected to continue in the coming weeks as negotiations persist. We may see prices remain high into June. With summer travel trends increasing in the summer months, drivers may see record-high fuel prices as they hit the road for their summer travel. 

Fuel prices are up for the tenth consecutive week, with prices up 5% since last week. As of Monday, April 13, oil pushed back above $100 a barrel after the United States began enforcing a blockade on Iranian ports following failed talks with Tehran, while Iran continued to limit shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported Brent above $100, while WTI paced over $108. Rack averages dropped slightly this past week but drivers did not see this trickle down to the retail street price. The AAA average in every state is at his highest price in 5 years. OPEC has cut its second-quarter global demand forecast by 500,000 barrels per day, acknowledging that a sustained energy shock will suppress consumption. IMO reported that around 1,600 vessels and 20,000 seafarers are stranded in the Gulf.

For fuel buyers, fleet operators, and other energy-exposed businesses, the takeaway is straightforward: volatility is no longer theoretical and replacement cost risk is rising faster than headline crude alone suggests. 

Fuel prices are up for the ninth consecutive week, with prices up 8% since last week. Washington State currently has an average diesel price of over $6.85/gal with gas at $5.39/gal. The Seattle area is averaging over $7.01/gal for diesel while gas is at $5.66/gal. Oregon currently has an average diesel price of $6.28/gal with gas at $5.02/gal. The Portland area is averaging over $6.30/gal for diesel while gas is at $5.07/gal. This is the first time in 5 years that Oregon has had an average gas price over $5/gal. WTI Crude is currently trading at $115/barrel. The conflict in Iran has no signs of ending anytime soon, despite previous reports of a “two-week” operation and claims of the war being over. With more announced strikes approaching this evening, prices will likely jump again tomorrow morning.

Fuel prices are up for the sixth consecutive week, with fuel prices up 22% in the last two weeks. Last week, crude oil reached $112.48/barrel, sending prices higher across the nation. The stalling of tanker ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, as a result of the conflicts in Iran, has played a major role in crude oil prices spiking. Drivers in all 50 states saw fuel prices spike by over $0.25/gal. The national average price for gasoline is up $0.48/gal, while diesel is up $0.96/gal. It is estimated that for every $1 increase in the price of crude oil, gasoline prices will increase by 0.2 to 0.5 on average. It is likely that prices will continue to climb over the next 4 weeks as the Iran & U.S situation continues to develop.

Fuel prices are up for the sixth consecutive week, with fuel prices up 22% in the last two weeks. Last week, crude oil reached $112.48/barrel, sending prices higher across the nation. The stalling of tanker ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, as a result of the conflicts in Iran, has played a major role in crude oil prices spiking. Drivers in all 50 states saw fuel prices spike by over $0.25/gal. The national average price for gasoline is up $0.48/gal, while diesel is up $0.96/gal. It is estimated that for every $1 increase in the price of crude oil, gasoline prices will increase by 0.2 to 0.5 on average. It is likely that prices will continue to climb over the next 4 weeks as the Iran & U.S situation continues to develop.

Fuel prices are up for the fifth consecutive week, with fuel prices up 12% across the board. This comes on the heels of the heightened tensions between the U.S & Iran. The United States began its attack on Iran on February 28th, which was followed by retaliation strikes by Iran across the eastern region, with Dubai, UAE, and oil infrastructures being key targets. This resulted in crude oil prices up 24% in just 5 days. There is no real timeline for this conflict as it may continue for many months ahead. WTI Crude is currently trading at $75/barrel. Prices will likely continue to climb in the coming weeks as this conflicts continues to develop.

Fuel prices are up for the fourth consecutive week, with gas prices jumping over $0.24/gal and diesel over $0.15/gal. The average retail price for gas in Portland has increased by $0.24/gal over the last week. The Olympic pipeline went down for maintenance on Tuesday, February 17th, sending prices up across WA & OR. The Pipeline resumed operation on Friday morning, the 20th, but the effects on the supply chain are still being felt. U.S. Crude oil prices are also up over $2/barrel, which has contributed to higher fuel prices across the nation. This, along with California refineries switching to summer blends of fuel could likely push prices higher into this week as we continue to see prices climb.