Fuel prices dropped this past week as tensions and conflict in Iran remained stagnant. The stagnation did not last as Iran announced negotiations did not continue, and they will return to a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Upon this announcement, the US reinitiated its ground striking campaign in Iran with multiple strikes on Saturday & Sunday. The US reportedly struck military bases, radars, and drone sites in Tehran. The re-engagement of the conflict between Iran & The US has continued to choke the marine traffic throughout the Straight of Hormuz. Last week, only 36 ships passed through the waterway compared to 130/day before the conflict started.

Crude oil prices are skyrocketing on the heels of news over the weekend of the re-engaged military conflict in Iran. Fuel prices are expected to take a steep climb throughout this week as the conflict continues with no end in sight. The Trump Admin has proposed waiving the federal gas/diesel tax until September 2026. An act that would require approval by Congress. This proposal has signaled to many that the conflict in Iran will not be over anytime soon. This week, we will likely see crude oil prices back over $100/barrel.

Fuel prices were mostly stagnant this past week, with only a $0.02/gal variance on both the wholesale rack market and the retail market. Crude Oil prices are currently hovering around $110/barrel. President Trump has once again delayed planned strikes on Iran while also extending Russian sanction waivers for “vulnerable countries”. This allows given countries to buy Russian oil and refined products until June 17th.

The continued hostility between the US & Iran along with higher crude prices has cost US consumers an estimated $45 billion since the beginning of the war, with no end in sight. The conflict continues to draw bipartisan disapproval as goals and timelines of the war remain extremely murky. A global oil shortage is continuing to grow with an estimated 1 billion barrels in production lost by the end of May. The IEA has warned that demand for oil will exceed supply in 2026 with a daily loss of production exceeding 3.9 million barrels. Analysts across the globe are factoring a prolonged oil shortage and its lasting effects on supply and demand into the 3rd quarter of 2026.

Fuel prices jumped yet again this past week with heightened tensions between Iran & The United States. We are currently entering day 74 of this war. This prolonged conflict has sent a ripple effect through the entire market, disrupting supply chains as far as food packaging and labeling. This past week, prices jumped 8% since April 30th. Prices are up on both the wholesale market and the retail market. Portland currently has an average diesel price of over $6.25/gal, with Seattle over $6.99/gal. President Trump has said the Iran ceasefire is “on life support,” which has sent crude oil prices higher yet again, with many analysts still unclear what is next. Iran has most recently proposed charging fees to international companies using fiber optic internet cables that run through the Strait of Hormuz. These seven different cables consist of FALCON, GBI, and Gulf-TGN and are critical to global data and financial traffic. If Iran were to cut these cords or take full control of them, the effects would be immense.

This conflict has continued to draw bipartisan disapproval as the current cost estimates exceed $22 billion.

Fuel prices jumped back up this week after a brief downfall in prices last week. Retail gas prices jumped $0.19/gal while diesel moved up $0.12/gal. This comes on the heels of President Trump announcing an indefinite extension of the ceasefire between the US & Iran. With no hard-set dates or timelines, many are wondering what will come of the latest ceasefire and how it will hold up. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed and under a multi-national blockade between Iran and the US with ships being boarded & shot at on both sides as prices continue to climb. This ongoing conflict has continued to create supply network bottlenecks across the globe, affecting CNG, Crude Oil, fertilizers, chip manufacturing, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude is currently trading at $119/barrel, up $22/barrel since last week. The UAE has announced it will be leaving OPEC and OPEC+ as of May 1st. This will further the divide within global oil supply networks. The UAE is the third-largest producer of crude oil among OPEC members behind Iran & Saudi Arabia. OPEC supplies nearly 40% of global oil output, with over 4.6M barrels per day following the departure of the UAE. This will allow the UAE to produce and sell more of its crude oil to a larger market.

Fuel prices dropped this week for the first time in 10 weeks. Retail fuel prices are still high, as fuel prices are still over 45% higher than they were as of March 1st. Brent crude is still hovering around $100/barrel due to the prolonged strain throughout the Strait of Hormuz. The Blockade between Iran & the US has created a new dynamic within the crude market in which crude oil does not trade like a traditional market but as a geopolitical power structure. The current market is seemingly being driven by logistical supply chain challenges, not demand or consumption. While the US & Iran continue to negotiate a treaty, markets are still experiencing extreme volatility. This issue is not only affecting crude oil supply but also feedstocks, fertilizers, and thousands of key supplies to infrastructure globally.  

The US & Iran are said to be continuing negotiations of a peace treaty, as prior deadlines approach this week. The current market conditions are expected to continue in the coming weeks as negotiations persist. We may see prices remain high into June. With summer travel trends increasing in the summer months, drivers may see record-high fuel prices as they hit the road for their summer travel. 

Fuel prices are up for the tenth consecutive week, with prices up 5% since last week. As of Monday, April 13, oil pushed back above $100 a barrel after the United States began enforcing a blockade on Iranian ports following failed talks with Tehran, while Iran continued to limit shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported Brent above $100, while WTI paced over $108. Rack averages dropped slightly this past week but drivers did not see this trickle down to the retail street price. The AAA average in every state is at his highest price in 5 years. OPEC has cut its second-quarter global demand forecast by 500,000 barrels per day, acknowledging that a sustained energy shock will suppress consumption. IMO reported that around 1,600 vessels and 20,000 seafarers are stranded in the Gulf.

For fuel buyers, fleet operators, and other energy-exposed businesses, the takeaway is straightforward: volatility is no longer theoretical and replacement cost risk is rising faster than headline crude alone suggests.